CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z WED 05/11 - 06Z THU 06/11 2003
ISSUED: 04/11 23:57Z
FORECASTER: HAVEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central and eastern Mediterranean and a part of the Atlantic Ocean west of Scotland.

SYNOPSIS

Large anticyclone over central Europe will keep tstm chances very low over continental Europe. Over the south-central and eastern portions of the Mediterranean Sea a few tstms might occur in environment of low instability and low windshear in vicinity of an upper level Low. Also there is a low probability of a few lightning-strikes west of the British Isles where WAA is taking place and a shortwave will arrive during the period.

Over parts of western Russia and Ukraina marginal instability is present. In combination of an almost stationary upper trough this might result in some shower-activity, but attm thunder seems unlikely.

DISCUSSION

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